WILL ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN?

In 1981, Israeli Prime Minister Begin ordered the Israeli Air Force to bomb and destroy Iran’s Osirak nuclear reactor. The two greatest challenges were approaching undetected and avoiding the anti-aircraft defenses. Miraculously both challenges were overcome. The jets flew undetected and began their attack when the air defense system was shut down. They struck their target and returned safely. Though widely criticized at the time, the attack is now seen as having been the correct decision.

Israel is contemplating such a mission against Iran. Israel has made it clear it will not allow Iraq to acquire nuclear material. While Iran voted for the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 and enjoyed good relations with the Shah, things have changed. The Ayatollah Khomeini differentiated between the 20,000 Jews living in Iran and Israelis, so Jews in Iran continue to live, though under suspicion and under constant surveillance. There was some cooperation between the Islamic regime and Israel during the Iran-Iraq war, but no longer. Anti-Israel propaganda is as evil as the anti-Semitic material of Nazi Germany. President Ahmadinejad has sponsored an international conference of Holocaust deniers and has called for the elimination of Israel.

Some might question the sanity of Iran challenging the most powerful military power in the region. Sadly, the messianic feature of Shiite Islam, called Mahdism has been ignored by most in the West. Shiites believe the 12th Imam, Al-Mahdi, who disappeared in 941 CE will return. Challenging the unbelievers, primarily seem by Iran as the West, is part of the process of preparing the way for the Mahdi’s return. Ahmadinejad and others believe they will be protected by Divine power as they prepare the way for the Mahdi’s return.

Iran is close to creating enough fissionable material to create nuclear weapons. It has no real use for such a program. Iran has huge oil reserves and Russia has agreed to supply all the fissionable material it would need for a civilian reactor. While a poorly worded US intelligence report mentioned that Iran had shut down its nuclear weapons program, once it has the necessary fissionable material it could create a nuclear bomb in very little time.

Iran, having learned from Iraq’s mistakes has made the job of destroying its nuclear program complicated. It is better protected, in some cases underground and spread between different facilities. Experts believe that it will take many flights over a number of days to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity. Though one of four Iranian missiles failed to launch in a recent test, Iran is formidable military power and has the ability to use its proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon to cause destruction as well. Iran borders the Straits of Hormuz, a narrow water way through which a great deal of the worlds oil passes. Iran has threatened to retaliate against the US military bases and Israel should it be attacked.

World leaders have dithered on this issue for too long. The last possibility to stop Iran would be to cut off petroleum products. Ironically, while a leading producer, Iran does not have the refining capacity to supply its own needs.

Time is growing short. Once again it appears that Israel is again at risk and is alone. I certainly pray that it does not come to military action and that a way can be found to have peace.